About Forecasting Fluctuations of the Caspian Sea’s Level

Author(s):  V.V. Khaustov, Dr., associate Professor, Southwest State University, Kursk, Russia, okech@mail.ru

V.D. Kostenko, candidate of Sciences, associate Professor, Southwest State University, Kursk, Russia, iekostenko@mail.ru

Issue:  Volume 42, № 2

Rubric:  Earth sciences

Annotation:  The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest inland water body. The regional ecological problem of forecasting fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea is considered. Changes in the Caspian Sea level negatively affect the rational use of the region's natural and resource potential. Therefore, the solution of this problem has an important economic and humanitarian significance. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. At present, there is an abundance of diverse approaches to forecasting and many of the forecasts themselves. However, they did not solve the problem. The authors used stochastic modeling in their previous works. This article shows how to improve the method of stochastic modeling. This enable to obtain a more accurate forecast of the Caspian's behavior for the next fifty years. The results obtained indicate that during 2020–2060, it is necessary to expect an increase in the level of a unique water body to a mark of –25 m below the global ocean level.

Keywords:  Caspian Sea, level fluctuations, environmental problem, forecast, stochastic modeling.

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