Model for forecasting the need for non-food products: the example of medicines

Author(s):  O.A. Melnikovа, Dr., Prof., "Ural State Medical University", Ekaterinburg, Russia, newfarmacia@mail.ru

Issue:  Volume 45, №1

Rubric:  Accounting policies and measurement statistics

Annotation:  This article is devoted to the construction of an economic-pharmaceutical model for forecasting the demand for non-food products, namely for pharmaceutical products (medicines). The model contains elements of regression analysis. In the model, forecasting the needs of stocks consists of two components of commodity and economic. Commodity component carries information about the characteristics of the product (its consumer, ergonomic, anthropometric properties, reliability, storage and others). The economic component provides information on the price, the mechanism of pricing, the consumer price index. The calculation uses the recovery function, its normal distribution. The following correction factors are included in the function: the correction factor that takes into account the expiration date, the correction factor that takes into account the pharmacological composition of the medicinal product, the correction factor taking into account the storage conditions of the LP. The aggregate of economic factors for calculating the demand was expressed through the price index, the share of storage costs. The regression model of prediction of the need for a specific drug name combined the entire set of factors described above

Keywords:  forecasting model, need, medicines

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