Modeling of production of agrarian product taking into account the price seasonality

Author(s):  T.S. Buzina, candidate of Sciences, associate Professor, Irkutsk State Agricultural University named after A.A. Ezhevsky, Molodezhniy, Irkutsk district, Irkutsk region, Russia, buzinats@mail.ru

M.N. Polkovskaya, candidate of Sciences, associate Professor, Irkutsk State Agricultural University named after A.A. Ezhevsky, Molodezhniy, Irkutsk district, Irkutsk region, Russia, polk_mn@mail.ru

Issue:  Volume 47 № 1

Rubric:  Computer simulation history

Annotation:  The article is devoted to modeling agricultural production taking into account seasonality of prices. Various approaches have been described to increase the efficiency of potato production, which include increasing productivity by using high-quality seeds and high-precision technologies, as well as increasing economic efficiency by increasing the sale of seed and early potatoes. In addition to the above approaches to improving the efficiency of potato production, it is proposed to use optimal potato sales plans obtained taking into account price volatility. To identify the components of the time series of prices for agricultural products (trend and seasonal component), the «Cassandra» model was used, based on the use of the least squares method. Based on the «Cassandra» model, a linear trend equation is obtained, according to which the price of potatoes tends to increase. According to the seasonal component, the price of potatoes rises from November to July, then it decreases. The difference between potato prices in October and July is about 11 rubles / kg, which is explained by the appearance of local products on the market. The trend model is used to forecast potato prices for 2019, while the value predicted by the trend is summed with the seasonal component. To optimize the implementation of agricultural products, linear programming models with deterministic and random parameters are proposed, as well as a parametric model taking into account the possible presence of trends in the series of production and economic parameters and trend-seasonal models that describe prices. The optimization problem, taking into account the trend-seasonal model for quarterly potato prices, has been solved using the example of «Irkutsk Seeds». According to the results of solving the problem, 50% of all sold products must be sold in the fall, since the storage of potatoes requires additional costs, 10% in the second quarter, 17% in the third, and 20% must be kept until the summer.

Keywords:  agricultural production modeling, «Cassandra» model, trend, seasonal component, product sales optimization.

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