CROSTON METHOD FOR FORECASTING THE EXAMPLE OF SPARE PARTS OF MEDICAL EQUIPMENT

Author(s):  O.A. Melnikovа, Dr., Prof., "Ural State Medical University", Ekaterinburg, Russia, newfarmacia@mail.ru

M.V. Krasheninnikov, Prof., «Ural State Medical University» of the Ministry of Health of Russia, Ekaterinburg, Russia, newfarmacia@mail.ru

Issue:  Volume 46, № 1

Rubric:  Public and business finance

Annotation:  This article deals with the problem of predicting spare parts for medical equipment based on an analysis of the medical equipment market. The analysis shows that the purchase is due to various government subsidies. However, it does not ensure the proper level of quality of medical equipment. In this regard, there is a need to modernize the existing medical equipment. The article discusses a method for predicting typical parts for medical equipment that needs repair and technical work (using a typical medical organization as an example) using the original Croston method, which predicts the need for parts that are in demand intermittently. The article presents mathematical calculations of the prediction of failure of spare parts, an algorithm for constructing a forecast trend using the Croston method in Excel format. The results of the forecast of spare parts for medical equipment structured in the table showed that the average values determined by the Croston method are the most realistic for planning inventory.

Keywords:  forecasting, Croston method, inventory planning, medical equipment, spare parts

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