On approaches to predictive modeling of complex system

Author(s):  G.V. Averin, Dr., Prof., Belgorod National Research University, Belgorod, Russia, averin@bsu.edu.ru

А.V. Zviagintseva, candidate of Sciences, associate Professor, Belgorod National Research University, Belgorod, Russia, zviagintseva@bsu.edu.ru

A.A. Shvetsova, Belgorod State National Research University, Belgorod, Russia, 1162493@bsu.edu.ru

Issue:  Volume 45, №1

Rubric:  System analysis and processing of knowledge

Annotation:  Proposed to be used for predictive modeling of complex systems method for simultaneous take into account both the dynamic patterns of state changes of individual objects and statistical regularities of their social behavior in evolutionary development. For this purpose, geometric and phenomenological methods and techniques are used in relation to the description of temporal data characterizing objects in multidimensional state spaces. On the example of processing of statistical data on the state and development of Russian cities in 2003-2015, the method of implementing the method is presented and equations and dependences for predictive Analytics are obtained. The proposed approach relates to the relevant sections of social physics and system dynamics and allows to develop methods for forecasting the States of objects, based on the application of the concept of continuum fields of empirical measures and models of state spaces with different geometries. The applied significance of the method is aimed at improving the means of strategic forecasting of the development of the country, regions and cities, which is a priority goal of state building

Keywords:  economic and social systems, temporal data sets, predictive modeling, spaces and state equation

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