Simulation in tasks of regional security management

Author(s):  V.V. Bystrov, Institute for Informatics and Mathematical Modelling of Technological Processes of the Kola Science Center Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia,

S.N. Malygina, Apatity branch of Murmansk Arctic State University, Apatity, Russia,

D.N. Khaliullina, Institute for Informatics and Mathematical Modelling of Technological Processes of the Kola Science Center Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia,

Issue:  Volume 44, №23

Rubric:  Computer simulation history

Annotation:  Issues of national security are the urgent task, because geopolitical tension in the world growths. From the point of view of national security it is necessary to consider issues of safe development of country regions. Regional security is understood as the research direction, whose main task is the creation of administrative and organizational measures and means of information. These measures have to ensure the rational management of available resources in the region. Such management is oriented on preventing potential threats that have a negative impact on various processes of region development. Regional security is considered as a system of interrelated component, such as population and demographic processes; community and socio-cultural aspects; economy branches; education and training; environment and pollution; financial regional system. To understand the relationships between the components it is used the widely adopted approach of cognitive modeling. This approach is oriented on creation of causal loop diagrams. Using of created cognitive model and empirical and statistical data, the complex of simulation models of regional security is developed. The complex allows us to carry out computational experiments to obtain forecasts of regional sub-systems state. The forecasts are used to subsequent evaluation of regional security. A characteristic feature of the complex is a joint use of agent-based simulation and method of system dynamics. Agent-based simulation allows us to work with private indicators. System dynamics works mainly with aggregate and macroeconomic indicators. Joint use of these approaches gives an opportunity to obtain integrated indicators that reflects the state of whole regional security and of its separate components. The verification procedure was carried out to check the adequacy of the developed models. This procedure represents the comparison of model results with sets of retrospective data. Analyzing the forecasts, it is possible to conclude that the number of employees varies slightly despite the increasing importance of GRP by economy branches. This fact can be explained by the introduction of new production technologies which does not require increasing staff. The developed complex of simulation models allows us to obtain different forecasts in operative mode. Such forecasts provide a more detailed and visual information on various safety indicators, that results to improve the quality of decisions in the sphere of regional security.

Keywords:  regional security, simulation, system dynamics, cognitive model

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